We modeled the forecasted results for every cast in a content pillar — across three levels of executive presence. Here's what the numbers show before you wade in.
By Mike Harris, Founder, Harris CMO Partners · Published July 2026
In my last post I described the fly fishing method for executive thought leadership. The core argument: thought leadership works when you cover the full arc — every channel, every format, in sequence — before declaring a content pillar dead in the water.
The most common response I got was some version of: I believe the framework. But what are the actual numbers?
Fair question. So I modeled them.
What follows is a cast-by-cast forecast for a single content pillar — the kind of six-to-eight-week arc you'd run for any major theme in your thought leadership program. I've broken the projections across three executive presence tiers, because the numbers look very different depending on where you're starting.
Beginner
Under 3K followers
Sporadic posting, no consistent content system. Most executives start here.
Moderate
5–15K followers
Consistent posting, growing audience, some inbound engagement from target buyers.
These aren't guarantees. They're directional benchmarks modeled from published 2025–26 industry data (Socialinsider, Buffer, Brevo, MailerLite). Your actual results will vary based on niche, content quality, and audience composition. But they give you a basis for planning — and a target to fish toward.
Swipe through each cast below. Then I'll show you what the numbers add up to across the full arc.
Arc Method — Forecasted Results · Swipe to see each cast
Harris CMO Partners · ExecSignal AI
1 / 8
Example Content Pillar
The Arc Method Forecasted Results
Building Executive Presence — Cast by Cast
Every piece in the pillar series, modeled across three levels of executive presence — Beginner, Moderate, Established — so you can see exactly what each cast is worth before you make it.
Swipe to see the arc →
The Arc Method
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Cast 1 · Week 1
The Flagship Article
LinkedIn Article · Long-Form (1,200 words)
Introduces the framework and stakes your claim as its originator.
Beginner
Moderate
Established
Impressions
400–900
3,000–7,000
15,000–35,000
Engagement Rate
4–6%
3–5%
2–4%
ICP Comments
1–3
6–14
25–55
Profile Clicks
8–20
50–110
250–500
Engagement rate compresses as the audience scales — the strike is in the absolute volume, not the percentage.
Ranges modeled from published 2025–26 benchmarks (Socialinsider, Buffer, Brevo, MailerLite). Directional — not guarantees.
The Arc Method
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Cast 2 · Week 1
The Framework Carousel
LinkedIn Carousel · 7 Slides
Document posts, including carousels, are LinkedIn's highest-engagement organic format — built to be saved and shared.
Beginner
Moderate
Established
Impressions
700–1,600
6,000–13,000
28,000–60,000
Completion Rate
20–30%
30–40%
35–45%
Saves
4–10
30–70
140–320
Comments
1–5
10–25
45–100
Carousels consistently outperform text and image posts on engagement — the single highest-leverage cast in the arc.
Ranges modeled from published 2025–26 benchmarks. Directional — not guarantees.
The Arc Method
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Cast 3 · Week 1
The X Thread
X (Twitter) · 10-Tweet Thread
Reaches a second audience LinkedIn can't touch — threads outperform single tweets roughly 2×.
Beginner
Moderate
Established
Impressions
200–600
2,000–5,000
10,000–25,000
Engagement Rate
2–4%
1.5–3%
1–2%
Profile Visits
5–15
30–80
150–400
New Followers
1–5
10–25
40–100
X extends your reach into a segment that won't see your LinkedIn content — an audience you'd otherwise leave unfished.
Ranges modeled from published 2025–26 benchmarks. Directional — not guarantees.
The Arc Method
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Cast 4 · Week 2
The Email Newsletter
Email List · Personal Narrative
The most personal cast in the arc — and the channel most executives haven't built yet.
Beginner
Moderate
Established
List Size
0–200
~1,500
~6,000
Open Rate
—
25–30%
30–38%
Click Rate
—
3–4%
3–5%
Replies
—
5–15
25–60
Beginner presence: this cast usually doesn't exist yet. No list means no line in this water — that gap is itself the diagnostic.
Ranges modeled from published 2025–26 benchmarks. Directional — not guarantees.
The Arc Method
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Cast 6 · Week 3
The Video
LinkedIn Video / YouTube · 3-Min Talking-Head
Native video gets algorithmic priority — but established presence earns most of the watch-through.
Beginner
Moderate
Established
Views
150–400
1,500–4,000
8,000–20,000
Completion Rate
15–25%
25–35%
30–40%
Comments
0–3
8–20
40–100
Link Clicks
2–8
30–70
150–350
Video humanizes the signal in a way text can't. Even at beginner numbers, a video creates a different kind of impression than a post.
Ranges modeled from published 2025–26 benchmarks. Directional — not guarantees.
The Arc Method
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Cast 8 · Weeks 4–5
The Guest Post
Earned Media · External Publication
The only cast an editor has to say yes to — acceptance odds rise sharply with an existing platform.
Beginner
Moderate
Established
Pitch Acceptance
Rarely
1 of 3–5
2+ of 5
Publication Reach
—
15K–50K
75K–250K+
Referral Visits
—
30–100
150–500+
Backlink Value
—
Moderate
High
Editors check your platform before they read your pitch. Established presence is often the deciding factor — not the writing.
Ranges modeled from published 2025–26 benchmarks. Directional — not guarantees.
The Arc Method
8 / 8
Cast 12 · Week 6
The Conversion Piece
LinkedIn + Blog · Series Closer
Six weeks of casts compound into this: the strike.
Two minutes. Free. No contact info required. Find out which tier you're in — and which cast to make first.
What the numbers tell you about where you are
The beginner numbers look discouraging until you understand what they represent. A beginner-tier executive running the full arc on a content pillar might generate 400–900 impressions on the flagship article, a handful of ICP comments, and perhaps no discovery calls from the conversion piece. That's not failure. That's the system working at its starting point.
What the beginner numbers don't show is the compounding effect. Every arc you run adds followers, builds SEO equity, grows your email list, and increases the probability that the next arc starts from a higher position. The executives I've watched move from beginner to moderate presence don't do it with a single viral post. They do it by covering the arc, consistently, across multiple pillars, over six to twelve months.
The moderate numbers are where things get genuinely interesting from a business outcomes perspective. At 5–15K followers with consistent posting, a single pillar arc can generate 6,000–13,000 carousel impressions, 30–70 saves, 8–20 scorecard completions from the conversion piece, and 1–3 discovery calls. At $2,500 per Discovery Audit, a moderate-tier executive running two pillar cycles per quarter is looking at a system that can pay for itself.
"The carousel is the highest-leverage cast in the arc — not because it's the most sophisticated, but because document posts are LinkedIn's highest-engagement organic format. If you only have bandwidth for two casts, make it the article and the carousel."
— Mike Harris, Harris CMO Partners
The cumulative arc — what all the casts add up to
Here is what surprises most executives when they see the full picture: the individual cast numbers are interesting, but the cumulative reach across a complete arc is what makes the system defensible as a revenue strategy. Select your tier below to see the total.
Cumulative arc reach — full pillar cycle
Midpoint estimates across all casts in the arc. Select your current tier.
I am at thetier
Total estimated impressions across all casts
Midpoint of published 2025–26 benchmark ranges (Socialinsider, Buffer, Brevo, MailerLite). Directional estimates only — not guarantees. Your results will vary based on niche, content quality, and audience composition.
What the data doesn't capture
The numbers above are reach and engagement metrics. They don't capture the most important outcomes of a disciplined thought leadership program — the ones that show up in your CRM, not your LinkedIn analytics dashboard.
A moderate-tier executive who runs six pillar arcs over twelve months doesn't just accumulate impressions. They become the person their buyers cite in internal discussions. They get invited to speak at the conference where their ICP gathers. They have former cold prospects reach out because "I've been following your content and we finally have a project that fits." None of that shows up in a benchmark range from Socialinsider.
The math works. But the compound effect — the authority that builds when buyers see your name consistently, in multiple contexts, over months — is what the math can't model. That's the part you have to wade in to find out.
Key takeaways from the Arc Method data
1
The carousel is the highest-leverage single cast — document posts consistently outperform text and image posts on LinkedIn engagement.
2
Beginner-tier executives should focus on building the email list first — it's the only cast that shows near-zero numbers at Beginner and compounds fastest with investment.
3
Guest post acceptance correlates directly with platform size — editors check your presence before they read your pitch.
4
Engagement rate compresses as audience scales — what matters at Established tier is absolute ICP volume, not percentage.
5
At Moderate tier, a single pillar arc can generate enough Discovery Audit bookings to cover the cost of the program. The math works.
Find out which tier you're in right now
The ExecSignal Assessment is an 11-question diagnostic that benchmarks your current thought leadership position and tells you which cast to make first. Two minutes. Free. No contact information required.
Mike Harris is a tech CMO with 30+ years leading marketing at technology companies, from Fortune 500s to high-growth turnarounds. He runs Harris CMO Partners, helping tech executives build the thought leadership systems that get them heard.